United Phosphorus Ltd Stock Quotes and Charts
Source:Citigroup Global Markets-Equity Research <br><br>Price (10 Dec 07) Rs344.10<br>Target price Rs460.00<br>Expected share price return 33.7%<br>Expected dividend yield 0.3%<br>Expected total return34.0%<br>Market Cap Rs64,532M<br>US$1,641M<br><br>Valuation:The generics crop protection segment is likely to witness healthy growth, with leading companies such as UPL expected to be among the key beneficiaries. We therefore believe that P/E vs. earnings CAGR or EV/EBIDTA vs. EBIDTA CAGR is the correct metrics to value companies such as UPL. Our target price is based on 16x P/E, which is within its trading range of 9-21x since January 2004, when the stock got re-listed post the reverse merger with its subsidiary (Search Chem). Our price target of Rs460/share is based on 16x FY09E (16x Sept08E earlier) earnings. We believe that FY09 estimates reflect the true earnings power of UPL, especially in the acquired Cerexagri business, asmargins scale up to sustainable levels on the back of the restructuring efforts being undertaken by the company. <br>Risks: We rate UPL Low Risk according to our quantitative risk-rating system. The main downside risks to our target price and estimates include: (1) Cut in farm subsidies in regulated markets&&; (2) Inability to effectively integrate one of its acquisitions - slower than expected ramp up in Cerexagri's profitability&&; (3) shift in acreage to corn (8-9% of US sales) from cotton (15-18% of US sales), provided this cannot be made up by higher supplies to other parts of the world (4) Poor monsoons in India.
Buy United Phos. only in the region 174-176 with a stop loss below 169 for an intra-day target of 187.
how do you think United Phos share will move in the next 6 months
UNITED PHOS<br><br>Last close 170.45 <br><br>Wise people are continuous buyers in this stock … fireworks starting today in this stock will take it to Rs.176 which is a minor hurdle … Crossover with volumes will take stock to Rs.181 …. Soon stock will cross the Rs.200 mark ….!!! Stoploss Rs.166. Just do not miss this one …!!!
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